
Fertilizer prices have eased, but affordability remains a concern for farmers. China has limited phosphate fertilizer exports, possibly into 2023, and Ukraine has suspended fertilizer exports until year-end.
Export restrictions from China and Ukraine tighten global phosphate supply, which keeps fertilizer costs high and can reduce planted acreage and future grain output.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.