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StoneX's Josh Linville argues that fertilizer prices are now driven more by government action than by demand. He points to European carbon border rules that add regulatory costs to imports and to Chinese and Indian export controls that restrict availability.
Carbon costs and export controls structurally raise the cost and reduce the availability of nitrogen and phosphate, supporting higher fertilizer prices regardless of planting intentions.
stonex.comJosh LinvilleDec 17, 2025After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
