
Agri-Access principal Peter McEwen says political decisions in Russia, Egypt, Morocco and China, including new export tariffs and Chinese export restrictions, have driven fertiliser prices to record levels. He said urea has hit an all-time high above 2008 peaks, with potash expected to follow in early 2022.
Export tariffs and Chinese restrictions tighten global nutrient supply, keeping fertiliser costs elevated for feed grain producers and raising input costs for corn and other crops that feed livestock.
After 129 past bullish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.