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An OPEC Fund analysis says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, 2026 put about one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade at risk. Urea prices roughly doubled and DAP rose about 35% through April.
The analysis argues that export restrictions by non-Gulf suppliers and subsidy-driven import policies in large importers such as India and Pakistan will further shape world prices.
Sudden export restrictions or import-policy shifts by major fertilizer buyers can move world urea and DAP prices by hundreds of dollars per ton. That raises input costs for feed-grain production and adds upside risk to crop and feed prices.
opecfund.orgAug 25, 2026After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
