
China has extended its restrictions on exports of DAP, MAP and some NPK fertilisers through at least August 2026, and Russia continues to enforce quotas on fertiliser shipments. Between 50% and 80% of China's fertiliser export volumes are now restricted.
Tighter Chinese and Russian export supply forces importers such as India, Brazil and Southeast Asia to buy from costlier alternative sources, which supports phosphate prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China extending DAP/MAP export curbs through August, alongside Russian quotas, tightens global export supply and supports DAP prices.