The Dutch TTF front-month gas contract, Europe's wholesale benchmark, rose 5.33% to 103.10 euros per MWh, a four-year high. It gained about 42.5% over October, and the British equivalent rose 5.5% to 256.47 pence per therm.
Higher European gas prices raise fertilizer (nitrogen) production costs and energy-linked costs for feed processing, supporting grain and meal prices.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.