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US biofuel producers paused operations in Q1 2025 during the transition to the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit, with limited relief from feedstock price declines in early March. Reduced renewable diesel and biodiesel output is expected to affect feedstock pricing in the first half of the year.
Lower renewable diesel and biodiesel output reduces demand for soybean oil and other vegetable oil feedstocks, which is bearish for oilseed crush values and supports higher RIN prices.
argusmedia.comMar 21, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
