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StoneX analysis says US biodiesel output is down 30% year over year and renewable diesel is down 9%, after expired tax credits and delayed programs. Brazil raised its biodiesel blend mandate from 14% to 15%, and Indonesia's biofuel targets are tightening palm oil exports.
Diverging biofuel policies shift vegetable oil flows, with weaker US demand pressuring soyoil while Brazilian and Indonesian mandates support soy and palm oil consumption.
stonex.comEditorial TeamNov 3, 2025After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
