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The World Bank said its food commodity price index fell 4% in 2025Q3 quarter on quarter, with rice prices down 10% and now below their 2019 average. Soybean oil and palm oil each rose 7% on biodiesel demand, while soybean and soybean meal prices declined.
Rising biofuel mandates in Brazil and Indonesia support vegetable oil prices, while weak rice and soymeal prices lower feed input costs. The outlook suggests ample grain supply continuing into 2025-26.
blogs.worldbank.orgDawit Mekonnen, Kaltrina TemajNov 18, 2025After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
