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The US rice market has been quiet with cash prices in a narrow range. USDA's February supply and demand report raised long-grain production estimates, pushing ending stocks more than 70 percent above the prior year.
Large US long-grain ending stocks keep downward pressure on rice prices. The surplus weighs on the market until acreage cuts or stronger demand reduce carryout.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.