
USDA's Prospective Plantings projects US long-grain rice area at 1.96 million acres, up 9% from 2022 but slightly below the five-year average. Long-grain exports in 2022/23 are lagging sharply, at 34.9 million cwt versus a five-year average of 52.4 million cwt, with Mercosur displacing US supply in Central America.
Expected production gains of about 11% put pressure on export demand to hold prices, and weak export performance is a bearish factor for US long-grain rice.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.