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USDA cut its 2025/26 all-rice export forecast by 2 million cwt to 87 million, with long-grain exports reduced by 3 million cwt. Ending stocks were raised by 1 million cwt to 50.3 million, while medium- and short-grain exports rose on Japanese demand.
Lower exports and higher ending stocks add to the domestic surplus and weigh on U.S. rough rice prices. Competition from Brazil, Peru and Pakistan is taking long-grain share.
feedandgrain.comFeed, Grain StaffFeb 13, 2026After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA's cut to the US export forecast and higher ending stocks add bearish supply/demand fundamentals for US rice, released days before the decline.
USDA's lower long-grain export forecast and higher ending stocks add bearish fundamentals for US rough rice.
