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The USDA cut its 2024-25 world rice production forecast by 464,000 tonnes to 527.7 million, still a record. Export forecasts were raised for Thailand and the US, and Thai quotes fell 1-2% over the past month.
A smaller but still record world crop and softer Thai and US rough rice quotes point to continued ample supply and weak rice prices.
After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.