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USDA-ERS economist Nathan Childs outlined the 2018-19 rice outlook: global production projected at 487.8 million tons milled, up 450,000 tons, with ending stocks of 143.8 million tons. U.S. 2018 production is expected to rise 5% to 213 million cwt on an 18% acreage increase, and U.S. 2018-19 ending stocks are forecast at 42.3 million cwt.
A larger U.S. crop and a 31% jump in projected carryout point to ample rice supply and weaker prices, with sluggish exports reinforcing the bearish balance.
ricefarming.comVickyJul 26, 2018After 87 past bearish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA-ERS outlook of a 5% rise in 2018 U.S. production on an 18% acreage increase and large global stocks signals ample supply, a bearish factor for U.S. rough rice futures.
