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Oil World expects global palm oil output to fall by about 1 million tonnes in the 2019/2020 season, creating a second successive annual deficit. The analyst firm says current price falls reflect sentiment rather than fundamentals, and that China's rising edible oil imports and Indonesia's biofuel programme support demand.
Falling output and unusually small year-end stocks tighten supply, supporting higher palm oil prices. The forecast of an average around $800 per tonne for January-June implies a firmer price trend.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
