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Farm Futures' Bruce Blythe argues wheat may be bottoming after a poor 2025, citing drought in Oklahoma and Kansas, five-year-high US wheat demand and widening premiums. Wheat ended 2025 down over 8% after hitting a six-year low in October.
Tighter supply from drought and firm demand could support wheat prices into 2026. Feed buyers should expect the recovery to continue if Plains weather stays dry.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheFeb 12, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
