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After 493 past geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.6%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 118 past geopolitics events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -3.1% to +3.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 464 past geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 144 past geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two major wheat exporters (roughly a quarter of global wheat trade), causing a sharp supply/trade-flow shock and risk premium that drove HRW futures sharply higher.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two major wheat exporters (roughly a quarter of global wheat trade), causing a sharp supply/trade-flow shock and risk premium that drove HRW futures sharply higher.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two of the world's largest wheat exporters, a sudden supply and trade-flow shock that drove the record HRW rally in the following trading days.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two major wheat exporters, removing a large share of world export supply and triggering panic buying that drove SRW futures to record highs in the five days ending 2022-03-04.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two major wheat exporters, removing a large share of world export supply and triggering panic buying that drove SRW futures to record highs in the five days ending 2022-03-04.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine closed Black Sea ports and halted exports from two of the world's largest wheat exporters, a sudden supply and trade-flow shock that drove the record HRW rally in the following trading days.
