NMPF reports US liquid milk production grew 1.7% in July, the slowest pace since March 2025, with heat stress and wildfire smoke trimming output per cow. Feed costs are rising on drought-hit crops and diesel costs are lifting hauling charges, and DMC margins are expected to fall below the $9.50 threshold from September through December.
Rising feed costs from drought-reduced crop yields squeeze dairy margins and could reduce herd-expansion demand for feed, while the slower milk growth offers some support to dairy prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
After 42 past weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.