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Global milk output growth moderated into July, reflecting drought and heatwaves in Europe, slightly weaker US growth, and lower Australian production. New Zealand output rose 4.5%, and the latest GDT auction fell an average of 1.3%.
Weather-driven European and Australian supply shortfalls support firmer dairy prices, while Oceanian price easing signals softer global export values.
After 42 past weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.