California, which produces about 20% of U.S. milk, is recovering from a drought-related output decline that persisted from late 2014 until October 2016. Farm milk prices fell 30% in 2015, dipped further in 2016, then recovered from June 2016.
Rising late-2016 prices are helping return California's dairy production to positive growth.
A recovering California milk supply adds to U.S. milk availability, which tempers the upside from firmer prices.
After 42 past weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.5%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.