Benchmark European gasoline refining margins rose nearly 9 percent to their highest since April after Harvey knocked more than 2 MMbpd of US refining capacity offline. Diesel margins also rose more than 16 percent from a week earlier.
Europe is expected to supply more gasoline and diesel to the US and Latin America, which raises European product prices. Higher freight rates on the transatlantic route add to delivered fuel costs.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.