Hot, dry weather is speeding US crop maturity, with about 41% of the corn crop denting against a normal 38%. Farmers are expected to start harvest several weeks early, which is raising demand for diesel.
Diesel values rose more than 12% since August 20 in Chicago and Tulsa cash trades.
An earlier harvest brings forward farm diesel demand and adds a modest lift to fuel prices. The effect on grain supply is secondary to the drought-driven crop stress already in the market.
After 39 past bullish weather events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +2.4% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -4.5% to +6.1%), and +8.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.