
The BCR projects Argentina's 2025/26 crop campaign will generate more than $35.375 billion in foreign-currency inflows, about $850 million above earlier forecasts, on a record harvest and firm prices. Middle East war is raising ocean freight by as much as 50%, along with fuel and fertilizer costs, squeezing farm margins.
Higher freight, fuel and fertilizer costs weigh on Argentine producer margins and could curb planting, while strong export dollar inflows support the peso and central bank reserves.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.