Red Sea worries cause spike in refined fuel prices, but market will adjust

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 24, 2025Diesel Traders Bet on Price Spike as Russia Refineries Hit - TT-0.1%
• Sep 30, 2026Oil prices rise by about $1/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets - CNA-6.2%
• Feb 26, 2022Will diesel fuel prices go up with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? | Commercial Carrier Journal+34.3%
• Mar 4, 2026Diesel Prices Spike on Iran Conflict Just Ahead of Planting Season - AgWeb+6.1%
• Mar 28, 2022Cattle market frustrates, but fundamentals are better this spring – The Seam-18.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2026Oil prices rise by about $1/bbl on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets - CNA+3.9%
• Feb 26, 2022Will diesel fuel prices go up with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? | Commercial Carrier Journal+23.1%
• Mar 31, 2026Brace for Worst-Case Scenario as Market Pressures Mount+4.8%
• Jun 13, 2025Jet Fuel Prices Spike After Israel Attacks Iran | Energy Intelligence+12.0%
• Jun 17, 2025Diesel Prices Surge as Israel-Iran War Pressures Market - TT-1.7%