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Brent crude rose about 4% to near $104 a barrel after Iran rejected a Trump claim of talks, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to 69.6 US cents, and WTI had dropped over 10% the previous day on a Trump deadline announcement.
A continued Hormuz closure keeps crude, diesel and fertilizer costs high, lifting feed freight and production expenses and supporting vegetable oil and biofuel-linked prices.
abc.net.auDavid TaylorMar 24, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
