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World grain markets fell sharply in recent weeks on fears that coronavirus could trigger a global recession and collapse export demand. US wheat futures dropped 8% over a few weeks, and palm oil prices fell 25% since mid-January.
The Australian dollar hit an 11-year low near 65 US cents.
Demand fears from the coronavirus slowdown, particularly weaker Chinese demand, are pressuring grain and vegetable oil prices, while a weaker Australian dollar cushions Australian farmers.
queenslandcountrylife.com.auLloyd George, Ag ScientiaMar 2, 2020After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
