
An explainer outlines China's slowing economy, with GDP growth near 1.0% since 2021 versus 1.5-2.0% before the pandemic, PMI readings repeatedly below 50, and the PBOC having cut rates substantially. The yuan is near historic lows against the dollar, and new loans and exports have been volatile.
Weak Chinese growth and manufacturing contraction point to softer demand for feed grains, soymeal and livestock feed inputs. Persistent rate cuts and yuan weakness reinforce a bearish medium-term outlook for Chinese feed demand.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.