
CLSA's chief economist forecasts the yuan will reach about 7.3 per dollar by end-2019, as it is allowed to weaken in response to US tariff escalations. The yuan traded near 7.11 at the time.
A forecast of a weaker yuan implies that Chinese importers face higher dollar costs but may buy less US product, a bearish signal for US feed grain and soybean export prices.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.