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Oxford Economics forecasts the renminbi will weaken toward CNY7 per dollar in the second half of 2022 from 6.65-6.79 in May, before rebounding in 2023. It cites zero-Covid policy uncertainty, monetary policy divergence with the US, and possible tariff easing as factors.
A weaker yuan would raise China's cost of dollar-priced grain and oilseed imports, potentially dampening Chinese buying interest, while forecasts of weakness reflect tepid Chinese demand.
oxfordeconomics.comSally LiJun 10, 2022After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
