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Commerzbank economists expect the yuan to stay weak through the first half of 2024, holding USD/CNY near 7.2000. They cite structural problems in the economy, especially real estate, and say expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts would ease pressure later in the year.
A persistently weak yuan makes Chinese imports more expensive in local currency and can slow purchases of US and Brazilian feed commodities. Any stimulus that fails to firm the economy would keep that drag in place.
octaafrica.netFeb 27, 2024After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
