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The yuan fell to its weakest level since August against the dollar, down about 1.6% in October, as US economic strength and bets on a Trump win lifted the dollar. Trump has pledged tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods, and Goldman Sachs estimates the yuan could slide 4-5% if tariffs rise 20%.
A sharply weaker yuan and threatened tariffs would reduce Chinese purchasing power and demand for US agricultural imports, a bearish outlook for US soybeans and corn.
nst.com.myReutersOct 28, 2024After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
