
The national average corn basis has fallen from its early-March peak as ethanol plants cut production or went offline. Gasoline below $1 per gallon has pushed ethanol prices down and plant margins under pressure, leading plants to pull or lower corn bids.
With nearly 40% of U.S. corn going to ethanol, weaker ethanol demand lowers local cash corn bids and basis, pressuring corn prices for feed buyers.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.