Illinois Extension economist Todd Hubbs says USDA's 2020/21 corn use projections of 14.775 billion bushels look high, requiring strong feed use and low prices. Ethanol production is running about 10% below normal, and exports above two billion bushels will need low prices to compete with South America.
If demand must be supported by low prices, corn rallies may be capped, keeping feed corn costs contained for buyers. Weak ethanol demand and South American competition limit upside.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.