
Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday, extending a slide to a new seven-week low on energy demand concerns in China after Citigroup cut its 2024 China GDP forecast. Support came from ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict risks and Red Sea shipping disruptions by Houthi rebels.
Weaker Chinese energy demand lowers crude and diesel prices, reducing biofuel and feed-transport costs. Red Sea rerouting keeps freight costs high, partly offsetting the energy decline for grain shipments.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.