
Oil edged lower on Tuesday ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, as Hurricane Ida and emerging COVID-19 variants raised demand concerns. WTI fell about 1% to around $68.47 earlier in the session before paring losses, and Brent October dipped 0.5%.
Investors also weighed the planned OPEC+ supply increase and the restoration of U.S. crude output after the storm.
Demand worries and expected supply increases point to softer crude prices, which lower diesel and fertilizer costs for feed producers. Weak Chinese factory activity adds to the bearish outlook.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.