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Oil posted its worst May in seven years as U.S.-China trade tensions and a Trump threat of tariffs on Mexico escalated. WTI fell 5.5% on the final trading day of the month, and Brent also declined.
Trade-war escalation threatens global growth and import demand, and tariff risk weighs on agricultural export flows and feed commodity prices.
worldoil.comAlex Nussbaum, Grant SmithJun 2, 2019After 80 past bearish trade events, WTI moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, BRENT moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Worst May in seven years, with WTI down 5.5% on the last day of the month as trade-war and Mexico tariff anxiety escalated.
