
Nearby NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures rose early on July 31 on expectations the Federal Reserve would cut rates for the first time since 2008. Optimism over US-China trade talks in Shanghai also supported prices.
ULSD and RBOB futures gained modestly.
Expected monetary easing and easing trade tensions support energy demand expectations, which can lift fuel and freight costs for feed buyers.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.