
Reuters cites analysts who expect global diesel and marine fuel prices to rise by October ahead of the January 2020 switch to low-sulfur marine fuels, staying higher for at least a year. The IHS base forecast puts US Gulf Coast ULSD above $2.12 a gallon in the second half of 2019, versus $1.778 on the day.
Higher diesel and bunker costs raise freight and processing costs for feed ingredients and can pressure ocean freight rates.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.