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The June STEO projected limited crude price increases as OPEC, Russia and US output grows. Private analysts were more bullish, with WTI gaining about $10 since mid-May and new highs set almost daily, while product prices lagged crude.
Crude and distillate direction feed into diesel, freight and energy-linked input costs for feed buyers. The divergence between crude and products suggests product prices may soften relative to crude.
fuelsmarketnews.comKeith ReidJun 17, 2021After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 11 past neutral macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.6% to +4.1%), and +3.9% over 20.
After 37 past neutral macro events, Natural Gas moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.2% to +12.9%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
