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John Kemp writes that US distillate stocks, which had trended down all year, now look tight after Hurricane Harvey disrupted major refineries. Stocks began 2017 at record highs but have fallen about 14 million barrels since January.
Tight distillate inventories ahead of winter raise the risk of higher heating oil and diesel prices. Price implication is firmer diesel and heating oil.
arabnews.comJohn KempSep 23, 2017After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
