
Chicago soybeans fell to their lowest level since September 2020 after USDA projected a record crop of 4.589 billion bushels. Corn rose on a smaller-than-expected harvested area, and wheat fell on competition from Black Sea supplies.
A record US soybean crop adds heavy supply and weighs on soybean prices, while lower corn acreage tightens the corn outlook.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Chicago soybeans fell to the lowest since September 2020 on the record USDA crop estimate, directly driving the weekly decline.