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Forecasts show a strong El Niño lasting into early 2027, with heavy rain in southern Brazil and drought in the Center-West and North. Some areas of western Mato Grosso have reported replanting, and excess moisture has delayed fieldwork in northern Rio Grande do Sul.
Brazil's Congress approved a provisional measure that widens eligibility for rural debt renegotiation to 60-70% of producers.
Replanting and regional weather stress raise the risk of lower Brazilian soybean yields, which would support soymeal prices. The debt relief may keep farmers planting but does not change near-term supply.
insights.tridge.comNov 14, 2026After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
