Chicago soybean futures jumped to a 2-1/2-month high after the USDA cut its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 49.5 bushels per acre from 49.9 in September, below nearly all trade estimates. November soybeans settled up 26-3/4 cents at $9.92 a bushel, while December corn rose 3 cents to $3.49 and December wheat fell to $4.30-1/2, with corn lifted by soybean strength despite a higher USDA corn yield of 171.8 bpa.
A smaller US soybean crop tightens supplies for soybean meal and oil used in feed, supporting feed prices. Corn's firm close despite a higher yield shows the market is reacting to soybean-led sentiment rather than fundamentals.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.