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Conab projects a record 2026/27 soybean crop of 181.62 million tonnes. Forecasts for a very strong El Niño point to excess rain in southern Brazil, including southern Santa Catarina, and a risk of dry conditions in the Center-West and North.
November planting timing will determine whether the following safrinha corn crop is delayed into early 2027.
Planting delays in the Center-West would push soybean harvests later and squeeze the safrinha corn window, tightening feed grain supply in early 2027. The record projection limits the price upside unless the November rains fail.
redeauriverde.comGenivaldo TavaresNov 15, 2026After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
