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A Serasa Experian study simulates that a strong Super El Niño could reduce Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean harvest by 17.6 million tonnes, with losses concentrated in Mato Grosso and Goiás. The estimate implies a potential R$33 billion impact on the crop’s gross production value and compares historical yields under strong El Niño and neutral conditions; it is a scenario simulation, not a crop forecast.
The modeled yield loss would materially tighten Brazil’s soybean supply and could lift soybean prices if adverse El Niño conditions translate into actual crop damage. The figure is scenario-based, so its market effect depends on weather developments and realized yields.
vidaboiadeira.com.brNov 9, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
