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November soybean futures have risen $1.28 per bushel over 15 trading days on concerns about lower yields after an extreme May-June drought and a hot, dry August. Some analysts see the national soybean yield falling to 50 bushels per acre or lower, while KC December wheat remains near its May low.
Expectations of a yield cut below 50 bu/acre would tighten an already tight carryout and support soybean and meal prices, though overbought signals suggest a possible pullback.
dtnpf.comDana MantiniAug 28, 2023After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
