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Soybeans rallied 10 to 15 cents on Thursday as soymeal futures gained, with speculators covering short positions. Forecasts called for near-normal rain in most of Brazil but dryness in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Statistics Canada reported November canola crush up 12.2% year over year.
Dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil raises concern about South American soybean and meal output, supporting soybean and meal prices. Short covering amplified the move, but the rally depends on whether dry weather persists.
barchart.comAustin SchroederDec 26, 2024After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 49 past bearish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Speculators covering short positions amid Argentine dryness drove soybeans and meal higher, a sentiment and positioning-driven rebound from oversold levels.
