
Soybean meal has risen about 19% in 2018, the best performer among Bloomberg Commodity Index raw materials, as Argentina's drought cuts crop prospects. USDA cut its Argentine soybean forecast to 54 million tonnes, while private estimates run as low as 47.2 million.
Argentina is the largest soymeal exporter, so tighter supply lifts global meal prices and raises feed costs for meat producers.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.