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Illinois Extension reports that July rainfall was generally adequate while August rainfall was below normal across most of the state, with less than an inch in much of southern Illinois. Severe drought was noted in parts of central and southern Illinois as of September 9, and late-planted soybeans in lighter soils may have run short of water during pod-filling.
Temperatures turned cooler from late August into September.
Dry August weather during pod-fill can cut soybean seed size and yield in the drier areas of Illinois, supporting soybean and soybean meal prices. The effect is limited to parts of the state so far.
farmdoc.illinois.eduGiovani Preza FontesSep 12, 2025After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
