
Rio Grande do Sul soybean harvest reached 95% by early May, but dry weather and natural threshing caused field losses, with productivity at 1 to 2.5 kg/ha in some areas. Corn harvest is slow, with late crops facing water stress during grain filling.
Losses in a state already facing its fourth consecutive crop failure reduce local soybean and corn availability, supporting soybean meal and corn prices if the shortfall spreads beyond the south.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.